The full age-drift-period-cohort model can give a good description of the data(P>0.05).
年龄-趋势-时期-队列的完全模型对观察数据提供合理的拟合（P＞0.05）。
Age period cohort model is widely used by epidemiologists to analyse trends of chronic diseases. The statistical model provides a useful modification for traditional descriptive epidemiology.
年龄时期队列模型广泛应用于描述性流行病学来分析慢性病发病率和死亡率变化趋势，它改进了传统的疾病描述性分析方法。
But parameters of age, period and cohort are not uniquely estimable because of the exact linear dependency among the three variables, so many approaches have been proposed.
然而模型的三因素间存在着完全线性依赖性，使参数不能得出唯一的估计值，许多学者提出了各种方法加以解决。
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