Hundred-dollar oil prices, creeping inflation in food and other commodities, gold behaving the way it did in 1979--could we be in for a repeat of stagflation?
The US has military advisers here training Georgia's fledgling army, officially to help Georgia counter terrorist threats but also to guarantee security for a new multibillion-dollar oil pipeline running through Georgia.
Syria, Iran, Malaysia and Venezuela ink 2.6-billion-dollar oil deal.
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So is the weaker dollar driving oil prices up or are high oil prices driving the dollar down?
There are a number of reasons to explain the fall in oil prices, including a stronger dollar (oil is priced in dollars) and weaker global demand.
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Between the years 2006-2009, for example, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices was approximately 80%.
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In the short term, the US dollar and oil have been highly correlated.
Of course, there's one sure-fire way to slow the price surge: The Federal Reserve could prop up the dollar, oil's currency.
Another banker discussed the relationship of a falling dollar to oil prices.
Perhaps because the storm did not end up being as strong as expected, or because of a strengthening dollar, oil prices fell Monday.
GDP, profit margins, the dollar and oil pricing are pivotal elements.
Even if Mr. Paulson were to figure out the link between the weak dollar and oil dictators around the world, a greenback reversal would take time.
Historically there has been little correlation between the dollar and oil prices, and while the relationship strengthened last year following the credit crisis, it has since weakened again.
The yen, yielding just 0.5%, was a cheap source of borrowed funds to buy much higher-yielding currencies like the New Zealand dollar, oil, U.S. high-yield bonds or even gold.
As the dollar sheds value it will naturally lead to high dollar-denominated oil prices.
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Even by announcing nothing at Jackson Hole, the dollar plummeted and oil caromed higher.
Macro players as well as Saudi sheiks put on long gold-short-the-dollar hedges because oil is denominated in dollars.
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The payoff would be a stronger dollar, lower oil prices and higher stocks.
It will offset the higher dollar price of oil last month's worry du jour.
Devaluation would both raise the local value of the state's dollar-based oil revenue and (maybe) arrest the outward trickle of capital.
By the same token, today's benign core inflation figures may be understating price pressures, particularly given the falling dollar and record oil prices.
The stronger euro will temper the rise in the dollar price of oil, but it will also blunt the competitiveness of Germany's exports.
The weak dollar, which makes it cheaper for importers to buy dollar-denominated oil supplies, is one more factor working in favour of continued oil price strength.
To those who have been wondering what ill effects might come from Asian countries' attempts to hold down their currencies against the dollar, the rise in the dollar price of oil and, indeed, of just about every other commodity provides an answer.
The petroleum industry is not price gouging, either: In an effort to stem slowing demand from consumers reluctant to pay higher prices, fuel refiners and retailers have been eating some of the added cost incurred lately as unrest in Libya and a weakening dollar push crude oil prices higher, according to the Reuters report.
Previous rounds of stimulus have weighed on the dollar, helping to strengthened the oil price, because it made the dollar-denominated commodity cheaper for holders of other currencies.
The key outside markets crude oil and the U.S. dollar index were also in a bearish mode for the precious metals Friday, as the dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower.
The key outside markets crude oil and the U.S. dollar index are also in a bearish mode for the precious metals Friday, as the dollar index is firmer and crude oil prices are lower.
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