Unfortunately, no means has yet been found for identifying which faults are about to go 'bang,' and the earth has not revealed any reliable precursory signals that indicate a quake is about to happen.

不幸的是，没有一种方法可以准确地预测哪一个断层会断裂，地球也不会给我们任何预示地震即将发生的可靠的准确的信号。

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This means that more tension has accumulated than previously thought; in the worst scenario, the next quake could be twice as strong as the 1857 one.

这导致(民众)比想象中更为紧张，(因为)在最坏的情况下，下一次地震可能是1857年地震的两倍强度。

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This very low base-rate means that any precursors of a quake would have to be incredibly reliable if decision-makers are to feel safe in using them to order mass evacuations.

这么低的基础概率意味着，如果要让决策者下定决心，进行大规模人口疏散的话，任何地震前兆都必须极其可靠。

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