Conclusion GM (1, 1) model can be well used to the short term prediction of Cardiocerebrovascular disease, but it is not very well in mid term or long term prediction.
结论GM(1,1)模型能够较好的用于疾病死亡率的近期预测，而中长期预测的效果不太理想。
The result shows that1) this method can be applied to mid-short-term prediction;
结果表明： （1） 该方法能应用于中短期预报；
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