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The trouble with survivorship bias and demagoguery is that they distract us from the essentials of our discussion.
FORBES: When Capital Trickles Away, Not Down
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One caveat: The data have an inherent positive survivorship bias, as some companies captured in earlier years may have failed along the way.
FORBES: Magazine Article
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But there could be survivorship bias in the data.
FORBES: History Is Written by Winners
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Nagel has, I think, been led astray by a big survivorship bias: the evolutionary lineage that led to us always found a viable mutation, ergo one must, it seems, always be available.
FORBES: The Darwinist 'Mob' That Wasn't
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Such a calculation is polluted by what's called survivorship bias--the ability of fund vendors to make bad funds disappear.
FORBES: Who's in Charge Here?
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Returns are likely to be overstated given that poor performers will drop out of the index (so-called survivorship bias) and that only funds that are initially successful will agree to report their numbers.
ECONOMIST: Despite mixed results, hedge funds earn a little respect
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The SPIVA Scorecard provides performance comparisons corrected for survivorship bias, equal- and asset-weighted peer averages and measures of style consistency for actively managed U.S. equity, international equity and fixed income mutual funds.
FORBES: Active Funds Continue to Struggle
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This so-called "survivorship bias" skews returns simply because more losers are eliminated from the sample.
FORBES: Whats the Hurry?
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Survivorship bias is most likely to pump up trailing returns "in the smaller, quirkier, more volatile categories, " where a lot of funds "wash out, " says Russel Kinnel, director of mutual-fund research at Morningstar.
WSJ: Survivorship Bias: Effect on Fund Performance Data