Certainly, any number of exogenous shocks could derail the exit market this year, and many companies that remain underwater in PE portfolios will not come to market for years.

FORBES: Exit Pressures Are Building In Private Equity

That is at model time folks seem to forget that they are dealing with a complex system that has specifically evolved to maintain equilibrium in the face of exogenous shocks.

FORBES: Could Long Commutes Be Making Us Fat?

Of course, if the current pace is to continue, all of the usual caveats apply with respect to exogenous shocks that sideline investors or, conversely, tighter collateral spreads that make CLO arbitrage unattractive.

FORBES: Connect

In short, PE investors will need to navigate a sea of global macroeconomic and geopolitical worries in a year characterized by choppy equity markets and nervous debt markets that could be capsized by any number of policy miscalculations or exogenous shocks.

FORBES: Where Is Private Equity Headed In 2012?

Going into the shoulder season there will be much less of a buffer to absorb any exogenous supply shocks.

FORBES: My Prediction Was Wrong: Why We Didn't Get To $8 Natural Gas